A front has left a pool of cold air over the southeast of the country, that is heading northwards over the interior. We have a strong high pressure system over the Bight, extending a ridge over us. It will continue to be very cold on Tuesday and Wednesday, and overnight for the rest of the week. All alpine resorts are dry until the weekend, as the high slowly moves eastwards.
The cold pool will encounter a tropical moisture feed from the Pacific Ocean, letting a surface trough form over the eastern states. Widespread rain will develop over inland parts of Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales. The trough will deepen and let a low pressure system form over northwestern New South Wales on Friday. This low will slowly track southeastwards over the weekend, spreading rain to its east and south.
Persistent precipitation will develop on Saturday over alpine resorts. The system is very cold right now, but there will be several days with a feed of warm, tropical air. By the time it reaches us, it will have warmed up significantly. BUT, cold fronts will be moving past (to our south) and there is the potential for an injection of polar air from one of these.
This system will be borderline cold enough, but I am expecting it to fall as snow 'at times' above 1500 metres.
The persistent precipitation is likely into early next week - and how heavy it is will depend on where the low moves.
Commentary above courtesy of Jane's Weather. www.janesweather.com