Jul 2012

A high pressure system to our east will dissipate today. Our weather is now all about a low pressure system.

The low should reach far southwestern Victoria tonight and slowly move along Bass Strait tomorrow and Friday.

It is cloudy but mostly dry today - there are the chance of rain showers. Persistent snow should develop late tonight and persist through tomorrow and Friday. The snow level is around 1500 metres tomorrow and 1400 metres on Friday.

A cold front passes through later on Saturday, but it is weakened by a high ridging over northwestern Victoria. We see just snow showers. Another cold front hits later on Sunday - and this will introduce a very cold outbreak (see the outlook).

How much snow...

10 to 25 cm late tonight to Friday (mainly Thursday).

3 to 10 cm Saturday and Sunday.

DETAILED ALPINE FORECAST (above 1200 metres)


Freeze level: 1800/1900 metres this afternoon, then around 1600 metres tonight.

The chance of showers this afternoon. Persistent snow from late tonight.


Freeze level: About 1500 metres.

Persistent snow.


Freeze level: About 1400 metres.

Snow breaking to snow showers.


Freeze level: About 1400 metres.

Snow showers.


Freeze level: About 1400 metres.

Snow showers, turning to persistent snow late.


I believe we will have a very unstable, very cold airmass over southeastern Victoria early next week. This is far from certain yet, but we may see snow down to around 600 metres for a time, and it should mean persistent snow for the alpine resorts. At this early stage I will be conservative with a prediction of 10 to 20 cm, but if this turns out to form well, as it looks like it should, we will have significant snow.

What can go wrong? The current low doesn't move as predicted, and the trailing high subdues things - but this system coming through early next week is a strong one, and hopefully will be the main player.

Courtesy of Jane's Weather,