News

Very cold to start the week. 5cm more snow for far southern/western resorts. All dry from Wednesday.

Summary:

A front has left a pool of cold air over the southeast of the country. We have a strong high pressure system over the Bight, extending a ridge over us. This lets snow showers continue for far southern/western resorts but it turns mostly dry for the rest. It will be very cold on Monday and Tuesday. Minimums were: 

• -9C Thredbo 
• -8C Hotham 
• -7C Perisher, Buller, Falls Creek 
• -5C Baw Baw

All alpine resorts will be dry from Wednesday, as the high comes closer. The centre of the high should then be over Victoria by Friday.

Meanwhile, the cold pool moves northwards over the interior of the country and encounters a tropical moisture feed from the Pacific, once the high starts moving eastwards. This will let a surface trough form over the eastern states with widespread rain for inland parts of Queensland and New South Wales. See the outlook for more information on what this may do to alpine areas.

Outlook:

We have an upper level trough bringing energy to a surface trough, and a lot of tropical moisture coming in from the northeast. This all combines to bring widespread rain to Australia. 

The surface trough should develop into a low pressure system over western New South Wales on the weekend. It will depend on where this low moves as to where the precipitation will fall. If it moves eastwards across central NSW, then it would only be light precipitation for alpine areas. If it tracks across southern NSW, then it will be heavy precipitation for alpine areas. 

Is there enough cold air to make it snow? The system is very cold right now, and continues to have a link to polar air until mid-week. Then it has several days with only a tropical feed. By the time it reaches us, it will have warmed up significantly. BUT, cold fronts will be moving past (to our south) and there is the potential for an injection of polar air from one of these. 

So, this is certainly one to watch, as it has the potential for a lot of precipitation - and the chance that will be cold enough for heavy snow.

Commentary above courtesy of Jane's Weather.  www.janesweather.com